ENGINE feed pull just now · card build 1.8h ago · 14 checks today · score watch LIVE (just now)
01
TODAY’S BETS
chips under a game = who’s on each sideBETATP
BETKBO
Finished today (10)
FINALMLB
FINALMLB
FINALMLB
FINALMLB
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FINALATP
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FINALWTA
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Best net units over the last 7 days · tap a capper for recent picks
🔥 hot streak · ❄️ cold (fade) · ⭐ proven (n≥60, edge holds) · u = units · small samples are noise · research only
03
CAPPERS CONSENSUS
LEAN = they agree · SPLIT = they don’t, we pass3cappers
LEAN DIETRICHATP
3cappers
LEAN LOTTEKBO
2cappers
LEAN DETMLB
04
WHAT AI LIKES
engine reads every capper post + live state, then ranksLate evening digest (23:58 UTC): all 5 MLB games final or live. DET vs KC (End 4th, 0-0) remains live with multi-capper DET lean. ARI @ STL effectively decided (Top 9th, ARI 9, STL 2). No POTD issued.
No AI play today
All 18 named cappers in feed have picks for games already final or currently live at digest time (23:58 UTC). No pre-game pick remains on today's MLB slate.
Feed check: 3 capper post(s) with stakes may not be reflected in this card yet (ExclusiveCapper, Thecappershub, cappersforfree). Next digest cycle picks them up.
LIVE RE-GRADESgames went live — our engine re-checked each pick
DET -1.5 (run line)STILL LIVE-PLAYABLE
Game scoreless through 4 innings at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park; DET pre-game -192 favorite; full-game run line still fully unresolved with 5 innings remaining. CONFLICT STATED: OutofLineBets (Royals +1.5 -107, 3u, thin-sample) is the opposite side of this exact run line — conflict-cut dominance applied (Anders Picks proven-positive tier > OutofLineBets thin-sample); DET -1.5 is the dominant signal. Run line odds at book unconfirmed; DET ML -192 is out of band.
Tigers -1 (run line)STILL LIVE-PLAYABLE
Different line number than the -1.5 conflict; no direct conflict with OutofLineBets (which is on Royals +1.5, not +1). JB posted 5u MAX at 22:35 UTC, 5 minutes before game start. Game neutral through 4 innings; DET heavy pre-game favorite still informative for direction.
DET 1H -0.5 (F5 moneyline)STILL LIVE-PLAYABLE
F5 result hinges entirely on 5th inning (0-0 through 4 innings; if DET scores in 5th and holds, covers). -145 pre-game price is in-band. Ticket contingency: both Randy Dobnak (DET) and Troy Melton (KC) must start — verify lineup is intact before acting.
Royals +1.5 -107STATE TURNED — PASS
Direct conflict with Anders Picks (proven-positive) on Tigers -1.5 — exactly opposite side of same run line. Conflict-cut dominance rule: Anders Picks proven-positive tier vs OutofLineBets thin-sample → DET -1.5 is dominant signal; this side is the conflicted weaker half. Cannot hold both sides simultaneously.
Cardinals ML (STL ML)EFFECTIVELY DECIDED
STL (home) needs 8 runs in their final half-inning with ARI leading 9-2 entering the top of 9th. Live betmgm ml_home shows STL at +3300. Mathematically improbable — Cardinals ML is a loss.
ARI/STL F5 U4.5 -146EFFECTIVELY DECIDED
Game in 9th inning — F5 (first 5 innings) result was determined hours ago. With 11 total runs on the board, the over/under on F5 is settled. F5 U4.5 betting window is closed.
A live price that moved means the market repriced real risk — not automatic value. Live books add delay and higher hold. Your eyes on the game decide.
What we passed on (27)
- Porter Picks: Rays ML 4u, Rays -1.5 2u, Rays F5 ML 2u, Rays F5 -0.5 2u — TOR vs TB already final at digest time (TOR 3, TB 1; Rays lost all four)
- AnalyticsCapper: Braves -1.5 (-120) 10u — ATL vs SD already final (ATL 6, SD 5; Braves won by 1 run only, -1.5 missed)
- AnalyticsCapper: Guardians ML (-145) — outside -150..+150 band; CLE vs MIN already final (MIN 3, CLE 1 in 12 innings)
- AnalyticsCapper: Blue Jays ML (-105) — TOR vs TB already final at digest time (TOR won 3-1)
- Hammering Hank: Padres/Braves u8 3u — ATL vs SD already final (11 total runs; over hit, Hank's under lost)
- Hammering Hank: Rays ML 3u — TOR vs TB already final at digest time (Rays lost 3-1)
- JamesBets: Braves -1.5 2u — ATL vs SD already final (Braves won by 1, -1.5 missed)
- TheGuru: Rays ML 1.5u -110 — TOR vs TB already final at digest time
- Bankroll Bill: Blue Jays F5 ML -115 0.75u — TOR vs TB already final at digest time
- Parlay Safari: Braves -1.5 2u, Rays ML 1.5u — both for already-final games at digest time
- Picks 4 Dayzzz: Rays ML 1u, Twins ML 1u, Braves ML 1u — all for already-final games at digest time; Cardinals ML 1u → live_regrades (EFFECTIVELY DECIDED)
- Dquan Picks: Braves -1.5 5u, Twins ML 2u — both already final at digest time
- Dquan Picks: Tigers/Royals over 8.5 2u — live game (DET vs KC, End 4th, 0-0); turning against pick — 0 runs in 4 innings at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park; below 6-entry live_regrades cap
- Matthew P07: Ian Seymour u4.5 K — TOR vs TB already final at digest time (player prop; settle: manual)
- Matthew P07: Troy Melton over 17.5 outs — DET vs KC live (End 4th, 0-0); below 6-entry live_regrades cap; needs 2+ more complete innings; thin-sample (no tape in our records); settle: manual if acted on
- PropBetGuy: Taj Bradley u17.5 outs +109 1u — CLE vs MIN already final at digest time (Final/12; player prop, settle: manual)
- RBsSportsPlays: Pedro Martinez +4.5 tennis 2u — ATP Estoril already final at digest time (Martinez lost per izzybtizzy recap)
- GamblingTailor: Alex Michelsen o12.5 Games Won tennis 10u — all tennis events state=post at digest time; Cardinals ML → live_regrades
- BetSheWins: Caitlin Clark u7.5 assists (-125) — WNBA game is July 25 (48+ hours out; not within 18h tomorrow_am window; not on today's slate)
- NOS_PICKS tennis board 7/23 — TRUNCATED POST; tail picks unrecoverable (post ends at 'Strongest consensus is'); all tennis events state=post at digest time anyway; flag for pull-layer fix
- DirtyBubbleBets: Lotte Giants ML (-145) — KBO sport not tracked on today's slate; ledger row cancelled (see tombstones)
- Kims Picks: KBO picks (Lotte Giants ML, LG Twins/NC under, Samsung -1.5) — KBO not tracked on today's slate; ledger row cancelled (see tombstones)
- Porter Picks (CFL): Edmonton Elks +4.5 4u — CFL sport not tracked on today's slate
- LegitSoccerBets: Conference League picks (Debrecen WIN, Aluminij DNB) — soccer not tracked on today's slate
- Le Tennis Goat, SetPointBets (tennis picks via Capperleaked) — all tennis events state=post at digest time; Dietrich ML ledger rows cancelled (see tombstones)
- LearLocks: no actionable picks in today's feed — promotional content only
- izzybtizzy: recap posts only (0-2 at Estoril, 1-1 at Kitzbühel) — no forward picks in today's feed
05
OUR CARD
what the board actually tracks — graded in public, losses includedWON
WON
PENDING
PENDING
LOST
PENDING
LOST
CANCELLED
32W-24L
+7.56 units
Range -21.3% to +38.4% — sample still small (56 picks so far)
Still testing — not enough data to claim an edge.
Verdicts coming: fade check Aug 9 · signals check Sep 1
the science →
research only — we track everything and show the losses too
EV
TRACK RECORD
real ROI with confidence intervals — auditable+15.5% ROI over 70 graded picks · 22.34u
95% confidence: -10.2% to +39.5% NOT PROVEN YET
PorterPicks4W–1L n=5+53.4%-23.6%…+90.9%small n
Picks4Dayzzz6W–2L n=8+43.2%-28.4%…+90.9%small n
Hammering Hank3W–3L n=6-15.7%-77.2%…+58.2%small n
Every number above reproduces from ev_audit.jsonl (70 graded picks). ROI on a small sample is noise — “proven” needs n≥60 with the interval clear of zero. Research only, not investment advice.